Radio's future can be even better than its past. Making Waves, the new book by Mark Ramsey, can help any broadcaster navigate a world of endless competition. An action plan for the future plus expert advice from Seth Godin, Douglas Rushkoff, Joe Jaffe, and many more. Read the HD Radio - at least 12 years away??
From MediaBuyerPlanner.com (certainly a target of interest to broadcasters):
While analog radio will perhaps phase out over time, even Robert J. Struble, chairman and chief executive of iBiquity, doesn't expect that to happen overnight. His most optimistic predictions for a complete HD takeover are for 12 years from now, though he thinks that's unlikely.
A couple of points worth noting:
First, even the head of iBiquity doesn't believe that analog radio will be history.
Second, his most optimistic projection is, by his own definition, most optimistic.
Third, note again the company distancing itself from the "presumed" association of "HD" with "High Definition," an argument that holds as much water as Bill Clinton's famous question "It depends what the definition of the word 'is' is."
Here's what I wrote back in April, based on a study by Forrester:
by 2010, nearly 10 million households will use HD Radio. Unfortunately, says Forrester, two million more households will listen to Podcasts, ten million more will subscribe to Satellite Radio, and twenty-five million more will stream audio from the Internet on their computers, through their iPods, via their cell phones, etc.
If you roll back the time clock by 12 years, the Internet was in full force but there was barely a world wide web. Projecting the future 12 years from now when it comes to technology is a sporty game, to be sure. And even Forrester's estimate, only five years out, shows that the iBiquity guess is not just optimistic but fantastically pie-in-the-sky.
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What "HD" (or whatever it should be called) needs is a "Sopranos" moment. A piece, or pieces of content that become so "it" they drive the demand to aquire a new technology. I can't remember the last time "Big Radio" produced content of that magnitude and impact - but that's what it's going to take. I'm willing to speculate with a degree of certainty that creating a jungle of new niche and flanking "sub-channels" isn't going to do the trick.
Posted by: Jeff Schmidt | August 03, 2005 at 10:20 AM
What I love about your post is what went unsaid: If you accept all of the Forrester predictions for other media in 2010 are true: 10 million for HD radio, 12 million listening to podcasts, 20 million will listen to satellite radio, 35 million will listen to Internet streamed audio. AND you go even further and say that all of these other media have exclusive listenership by people who no longer listen to terrestrial radio. Here is what you find:
New audio media: 77 million users
Good old terrestrial radio: over 175 million users
So there you have it: An absolute worst case scenario for 2010 and terrestrial radio is still ahead in audio reach by almost 100 million people.
Posted by: Jim Kerr | August 03, 2005 at 04:02 PM
Great point, Jim! Why get stuck on the fringes when the mass is so massive?
Posted by: Mark Ramsey | August 03, 2005 at 04:45 PM